Draw for 2010 World Championship

[Franz]

FIBA doesn't give a guideline on their 2010 site as to how they draw teams. But I assume it's something similar to what FIFA does with the World Cup.

Anyways, I'm going to speculate as to how the draw may be done and what groups may look like.

Pot 1 - Host & Top Three
Turkey
Argentina
USA
Spain

Pot 2 - Lowest FIBA Ranking
Tunisia
Cote D'Ivoire
Lebanon
Jordan

Pot 3 - Asia & Oceania
China
Australia
New Zealand
Iran

Pot 4 - Africa & Americas
Puerto Rico
Angola
Brazil
Canada

Pot 5 - Top 10 European teams
Greece
Serbia
Lithuania
Germany

Pot 6 - Top 20 European teams
France
Croatia
Russia
Slovenia

What do you think?

[Chagha]

You're wrong buddy, the Preliminary round consists of 4 groups made up of 6 teams each.

The draw is supposedly random, as observed in the '06 World Cup where Lebanon was in a group featuring France, Serbia, Nigeria, Argentina, and Venezuela.

While your method of using logic vs. random is fairer to the weaker teams, it will also lead to the qualification of weaker teams to the Knockout stage, which will pit these weaker teams at a higher final position than many which are stronger.

The random method is not the most efficient, because nothing random is, but it is the closest to efficient, and that's how it will go.

[rtk04]

i agree but u have to take into consideration that no 2 teams from asia will go to the same group...same thing concerning africa...
so the 4 asian teams will all go to one pot....
another pot will contain the 3 african teams

[rtk04]

Originally Posted by Chagha

While your method of using logic vs. random is fairer to the weaker teams, it will also lead to the qualification of weaker teams to the Knockout stage, which will pit these weaker teams at a higher final position than many which are stronger.

.

no man....u didnt get it....no 2 teams from the Pots presented above will be in the same group

[Chagha]

Originally Posted by rtk04

no man....u didnt get it....no 2 teams from the Pots presented above will be in the same group

I do get it, bud, but that's not how the FIBA draw works. Franz is just making assumptions based on his logic, which isn't how it works if you want to reflect to past WC's.

[rtk04]

Originally Posted by Chagha

I do get it, bud, but that's not how the FIBA draw works. Franz is just making assumptions based on his logic, which isn't how it works if you want to reflect to past WC's.

oh ok....i hope we face an african team in the group stage...and from america i hope it can be canada....
personally my wish for our group is to contain:

USA or spain
croatia
canada
tunisia or ivorycoast
newzealand

HEHE nevermind....we r in turkey let it be the best 5 teams i dont care...we will play with heart

[Franz]

Originally Posted by Chagha

I do get it, bud, but that's not how the FIBA draw works. Franz is just making assumptions based on his logic, which isn't how it works if you want to reflect to past WC's.

How am I making assumptions? My logic is based on 2006.

I think you're failing to realize that Group A was the weakest group in that tournament. All the other groups consisted of top 20 teams + 1 or 2 weak teams (Ranked 30 and above). That will likely be the case in 2010.

Group A - 2006

Argentina (1)
France (15)
Lebanon (24)
Nigeria (22)
Serbia (5)
Venezuela (23)

The equivalent of that group could be made based on my "logic".

Argentina
Jordan
Iran
Canada
Germany
Croatia

So please, don't tell me I don't know what I'm doing cause I do.

[sinobball]

Pots are not based on rankings but rather by Continents. Thus there will be no possibility that >1 Asian teams will be grouped together.

Pot 1 (Host & Top 3): TUR-USA-ESP-ARG
Pot 2 (Asia): IRI-CHN-JOR-LIB
Pot 3 (Africa & 1 Euro): ANG-COT-TUN-[LTU]
Pot 4 (Oceania & 2 Euros): AUS-NZL-[GER]-[CRO]
Pot 5 (Americas & 1 Euro): BRA-CAN-PUR-[RUS]
Pot 6 (Top 5 in Europe): SRB-GRE-SLO-FRA

Of course the European distribution will be a little arbitrary but this is the only combination that separates Asian/African/Oceanian teams.

[Franz]

Originally Posted by sinobball

Pots are not based on rankings but rather by Continents. Thus there will be no possibility that >1 Asian teams will be grouped together.

Pot 1 (Host & Top 3): TUR-USA-ESP-ARG
Pot 2 (Asia): IRI-CHN-JOR-LIB
Pot 3 (Africa & 1 Euro): ANG-COT-TUN-[LTU]
Pot 4 (Oceania & 2 Euros): AUS-NZL-[GER]-[CRO]
Pot 5 (Americas & 1 Euro): BRA-CAN-PUR-[RUS]
Pot 6 (Top 5 in Europe): SRB-GRE-SLO-FRA

Of course the European distribution will be a little arbitrary but this is the only combination that separates Asian/African/Oceanian teams.

I'm not saying your wrong or anything but why would European teams be group with other zones? You said it was based on continent rather than ranking

Wouldn't just make sense to make two pots consisting of eight remaining European teams? Regardless of how much shuffling is done with the pots, there is going to be three European teams in two groups (Groups of death).

Another thing - Japan was the host of the 2006 tournament. That is why there were no Asian teams together. They were seeded with Argentina, USA, and Spain. The African teams like Angola and Nigeria were high ranked teams, so they were in the same pot (avoided each other). Senegal was one of the lowest ranked teams and just happen to be in a different group than Angola and Nigeria. They could have been in the same group with either African team had the draw been differently. All in all, Asians teams or Africans teams facing with one another is a possibility, just depends on the draw.

[Chagha]

Originally Posted by Franz

How am I making assumptions? My logic is based on 2006.

I think you're failing to realize that Group A was the weakest group in that tournament. All the other groups consisted of top 20 teams + 1 or 2 weak teams (Ranked 30 and above). That will likely be the case in 2010.

Group A - 2006

Argentina (1)
France (15)
Lebanon (24)
Nigeria (22)
Serbia (5)
Venezuela (23)

The equivalent of that group could be made based on my "logic".

Argentina
Jordan
Iran
Canada
Germany
Croatia

So please, don't tell me I don't know what I'm doing cause I do.

I never said you do not know what you're doing, because that would be a jab at your intellect. I only said what you are assuming (and yes a speculation is an assumption) is incorrect. The FIBA website says the draw will be hat-drawn, which means it will be random. You can't base this year's draw on the one in '06. There is no formula for this. That is all.

I apologize if I have offended you, I did not mean to insult you. We shall see in a few days anyway.

[Franz]

Originally Posted by Chagha

I never said you do not know what you're doing, because that would be a jab at your intellect. I only said what you are assuming (and yes a speculation is an assumption) is incorrect. The FIBA website says the draw will be hat-drawn, which means it will be random. You can't base this year's draw on the one in '06. There is no formula for this. That is all.

I apologize if I have offended you, I did not mean to insult you. We shall see in a few days anyway.

Pots are random as well. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mM37uNGQrKk

And no, I'm not offended. Just clarifying

[PRSURF]

Originally Posted by Franz

How am I making assumptions? My logic is based on 2006.

I think you're failing to realize that Group A was the weakest group in that tournament. All the other groups consisted of top 20 teams + 1 or 2 weak teams (Ranked 30 and above). That will likely be the case in 2010.

Group A - 2006

Argentina (1)
France (15)
Lebanon (24)
Nigeria (22)
Serbia (5)
Venezuela (23)

The equivalent of that group could be made based on my "logic".

Argentina
Jordan
Iran
Canada
Germany
Croatia

So please, don't tell me I don't know what I'm doing cause I do.

And could be like this:

From pot 1(host & top three): Turkey
From pot 2(lowest fiba ranking): Tunisia
From pot 3(asia & oceania): Iran
From pot 4(Africa & Americas): Puerto Rico
From pot 5(top 10 european teams): Serbia
From pot 6(top 20 european teams): France

[RAWAD]

Now I will write how the draw pots will be not how it should be. From previous data, fiba ranked the teams according to continents. The pots will b like this:

POT1(HOST,olympic champ, top2): USA-SPAIN-ARGENTINA-TURKEY
POT2(Europe1) : Greece-Croatia-France-Serbia
POT3(Europe2) : Russia-Germany-Lithuania-Slovenia
POT4(Americas and Oceania1) : Brazil-Puerto Rico-Canada-Australia
POT5(Asia) : China-Iran-Lebanon-Jordan
POT6(Africa+Oceania2) : Angola-Cote D'ivoire-Tunisia-New Zealand

Now after showing my prediction, i think that these pots can represent continents and levels of teams. I know a group of death might result, but a weak group will most likely not occur.

[CanadianKid]

I hope FIBA has the draw completley random. There would be more suspense that way than having the groups based on levels of teams. You might end up with a group of death with all the top teams or a group with all the weak teams. Maybe a bit unfair but i'd still rather it that way.

[Dtown]

While it being completely random would add drama to the draw and first round, it could potentially take away drama from the later rounds. Imagine if Spain and the United States were in the same group.

It would be much better to seed teams so you get more balanced groups.

[spider]

group A 3 euro,1 americas,1 oceania,1 asia
group B 2 euro,2 americas,1 africa,1 asia
group C 2 euro,1 americas,1 oceania,1 africa,1 asia
group D 3 euro,1 americas,1 africa,1 asia

[Franz]

I would like to know where the draw is completely random. In 2006, it didn't look that way. It looked like teams were randomly picked by their ranking (pots involved), not just out of a hat.

Because if it's completely random, then that would put 2010 WC in major jeopardy. Imagine a group consisting of USA, Spain, Slovenia, Brazil, Australia, and Angola. You really think that makes sense? Weaker teams, in other groups, would qualify for the knock out stage even though they shouldn't be there.

[Dtown]

Originally Posted by Franz

I would like to know where the draw is completely random. In 2006, it didn't look that way. It looked like teams were randomly picked by their ranking (pots involved), not just out of a hat.

Because if it's completely random, then that would put 2010 WC in major jeopardy. Imagine a group consisting of USA, Spain, Slovenia, Brazil, Australia, and Angola. You really think that makes sense? Weaker teams, in other groups, would qualify for the knock out stage even though they shouldn't be there.

The notion that it's completely random is FIBA's fault. The description of the draw via their site states all 24 teams go into a hat, with no mention of seeding or separate pots.

Of course this wouldn't be the first time a description on their site left something to be desired.

[yowaspopinneg]

LOL at some people who advocate random draws I mean its just plain stupid Its not fair to the teams (weaker team can secure playoff spot over stronger team simply because weaker team got weaker oponents in their first round group). Plus as already mentioned - not ballanced first round groups can result less or no drama in playoffs

[CanadianKid]

Originally Posted by yowaspopinneg

LOL at some people who advocate random draws I mean its just plain stupid Its not fair to the teams (weaker team can secure playoff spot over stronger team simply because weaker team got weaker oponents in their first round group). Plus as already mentioned - not ballanced first round groups can result less or no drama in playoffs

Okay, so have the draw like this.

Top 4 teams (based on world ranking) in one plot. (Argentina,USA,Spain, Greece)
Next 4 best teams in another plot. (Serbia,Lithuania,Germany,China)
3rd 4 best in a plot. (Puerto Rico,Australia,Angola,New Zealand)
4th 4 best in a plot. (Brazil,France,Croatia,Russia)
5th 4 best in a plot. (Turkey,Canada,Slovenia,Iran)
6th 4 best in a plot. (Lebanon,Jordan,Ivory Coast,Tunisia)

Then draw one team from each plot to determine the groups. One team from each level in each group. That way you end up with the highest ranking teams end up in different groups yet still have exciting high end matchups by having those 2nd and 3rd tier teams. The weak teams don't get stuck with having to play multiple teams at an elite level. The elite teams then have a chance to meet up in the later elimination rounds for excitement and you still have a bit of randomness for the draw.